New DRC Cobalt Rules Shake Up Global Markets

On October 16, 2025, the core supplier of global cobalt resources, Congo (Kinshasa), will officially end its nearly 8-month export ban and implement a highly anticipated annual export quota management system. This policy aimed at stabilizing the market has brought unprecedented challenges and structural opportunities to the global cobalt industry chain due to the clear upper limit of the total amount.
1, Policy Panorama Interpretation: From "Administrative Prohibitions" to "Quantitative Management"
The policy shift in the Democratic Republic of Congo marks a new stage of more refined and long-term oriented mineral regulation.

① .Clear overall framework: According to the plan of the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo (ARECOMS), the annual cobalt export limit is set at 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. This number is divided into a "basic quota" of 87000 tons and a "strategic quota" of 9600 tons.

② .The allocation principle based on historical performance orientation: Export quotas will be mainly allocated based on the historical export performance of each mining company from 2022 to 2024. This means that top enterprises with stable operations and large export volumes over the past three years will gain significant advantages under the new regulations.

③ .Transition period arrangement for 2025: For the transition period from October 16 to December 31, 2025, the government has set an export limit of 18125 tons to ensure the smooth implementation of policies.

The core goal of this system is to shift from the drastic fluctuations of the past "one size fits all" ban to curbing fraud, stabilizing global cobalt prices through predictable supply, and gradually strengthening the country's voice in the value chain.

2, Deep impact and commercial insights on the global cobalt industry chain
①. Upstream mining: Compliance and localization become core competitiveness
For mining giants operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the rules of the game have changed.

• Deepening the moat of top enterprises: Companies such as Glencore and Luoyang Molybdenum, which have established large local production capacity and good export records, have a high degree of quota guarantee and stronger ability to resist policy risks.
• The challenge of emerging projects: For new entrants or projects with short export records, the difficulty of obtaining sufficient quotas increases, and they may face the dilemma of "having production capacity but no quotas". The project development cycle and financing model need to be re evaluated.

②. Midstream Smelting and Trade: Reconstructing Business Models in the Battle for Raw Materials
The global refined cobalt production capacity, mainly concentrated in China, will face the most direct impact.

• Quotas have become scarce resources: primary raw materials in circulation (such as cobalt hydroxide) will carry "quota labels" and their value connotations will change. The competition among smelting enterprises has upgraded from "seeking sources of goods" to "competing for sources with quota endorsement", and the "compliance premium" in procurement costs will become explicit.
• Centralized trade flow: The quota allocation mechanism will promote the concentration of raw material supply to a few traders closely tied to large mining enterprises, squeezing the living space of small and medium-sized traders and increasing industry concentration.
• The urgency of capacity transfer: In order to lock in quotas from the source, leading cobalt product manufacturers must accelerate the pace of transferring primary smelting capacity to the Democratic Republic of Congo. China's domestic smelting capacity is forced to shift towards high value-added fine chemicals such as cobalt salts and cobalt powders.

③. Downstream manufacturing and terminal applications: Supply chain resilience becomes a strategic lifeline
For battery manufacturers, electric vehicle and 3C product companies, this is a clear warning signal.

• Price fluctuations and cost management: Although the quota system aims to stabilize prices, its annual cap may provide a solid 'price floor' for the market. Downstream enterprises need to establish more flexible procurement strategies and cost transmission mechanisms to cope with possible structural cost increases.
• Upgrade of supply chain security strategy:

Diversification is no longer an option, but a necessity: actively evaluating and exploring cobalt resources in Indonesia, Australia, Canada, and other places to reduce dependence on a single source.
Technical route choice: This policy provides a stronger market expansion logic for lithium iron phosphate batteries and greatly accelerates the commercialization process of high nickel low cobalt/cobalt free battery technology.
The recycling industry has entered the mainstream: from "optional" to "mandatory". The recycling of power batteries will become a key link in stabilizing supply and stabilizing costs, attracting more strategic investment.

3, To Global Colleagues and Partners: Our Common Topic
The quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has set a new, quantified operational framework for the global cobalt industry. Under this new framework, every practitioner needs to think about:

• How will your company adjust its global procurement and resource layout strategy under the new normal of annual supply of 96600 tons?
• How can we optimize costs through technological innovation and supply chain synergy in the face of the potential long-term "compliance premium"?
• Does this mean that a new era of industrial cooperation has arrived, shifting from short-term transactions to long-term strategic alliances? How should we build these alliances?
• How will your company's strategic focus be allocated between "open source" (new mining sources) and "throttling" (technology substitution and recycling)?

This change concerns every aspect of the supply chain. We look forward to exchanging insights with global peers and exploring the path of sustainable development under new rules together.