New Uncertainty Hits Global Economy
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2025 is coming to an end. The world economy is once again surging under the triple pressure of repeated tariffs, the rise of AI foam theory and the puzzle of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The undercurrent surges beneath the surface calm, how should we defend our wallets in this multi-threaded situation? This is not only a question for investors, but also a strategic proposition that all manufacturing and supply chain enterprises must face.
Looking back at the past year, we have witnessed Trump fall from the peak of public opinion into the abyss of controversy, seen cracks within the Western alliance gradually emerge, and also seen China stabilize its supply chain and market with more flexible strategies in the midst of the "small courtyard high wall" policy, and demonstrate its strength to the world with the launch of aircraft carriers, National Day parades, capital market breakthroughs of 4000 points, and a hardcore performance of GDP growth of 5%.
However, 'those who travel a hundred miles are half ninety'. As the year-end approaches, risks are accelerating in the last two months--
Tariff geopolitical conflicts have been secretly fermented, AI investment heat wave has heated up, along with the foam debate, and the rate cut of the Federal Reserve in December is still pending.
These risks are like hidden reefs in the deep sea, but they are enough to change the flow of funds, industrial layout, and market sentiment.
This year, what is even more noteworthy is the hidden volatility of certain key raw materials - especially one of the most sensitive and volatile rare metals in the global supply chain:
Tungsten - widely used in aerospace, AI heat dissipation modules, semiconductor equipment, and high-temperature components.
Its price fluctuations have become a highly concerned indicator for the global manufacturing industry.
Tariff fog escalation: paper tiger or real fangs?
The Busan summit may seem like a "smile that erases enmity", but in essence, it is more like a tactical buffer of "exchanging space for time".
The five major factions within the Trump administration are still struggling:
Conservatives: view trade deficits as national enemies and pursue fairness on paper.
Mercantilist faction: forcing the return of manufacturing industry through tariffs.
Tariff substitution for income tax faction: attempting to fill the fiscal black hole with tariffs.
Geopolitical tariff faction: wants to reshape the US led economic order.
Negotiation deterrence faction: using tariffs as diplomatic chips to 'fleece allies'.
The result is--
The trade deficit has increased instead of decreased, the return of manufacturing industry is a drop in the bucket, and diplomatic credit has been severely overdrawn.
Cease fire does not mean the end of the war.
As the United States continues to plan for "de risking" key mineral supply chains--
The global industrial chain, including strategic metals such as tungsten, niobium, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, and zirconium, is facing reshaping.
Especially tungsten: the decline in European inventories, the increase in the US strategic inventory list, the insufficient capacity to undertake in Southeast Asia, and the upgrading of China's export structure have made it one of the most volatile rare metals of the year.
AI foam dispute: boundary between feast and abyss
AI remains the hottest track in the global capital market.
NVIDIA's market value once exceeded $5 trillion, with global AI investment approaching $440 billion.
On the other hand, Bury, who had previously shorted the subprime crisis, used over 80% of his position to short Nvidia, causing market shock.
If we refer to the four stages of the Internet foam in 2000--
Start → Accelerate → Frenzy → Break
We are likely in a transitional zone of accelerating towards fanaticism.
However, unlike the Internet era, the current AI demand is still in the high-speed landing stage:
- Continuous iteration of large models
- Explosive growth of video AI
- Electricity, computing power, and chip demand are taking off simultaneously
- Multiple governments increase investment in infrastructure
- The demand for high-purity tungsten target materials, niobium based alloys, and tantalum crucibles continues to increase
The supply side infrastructure is far from perfect, especially the supply chain for energy consumption, semiconductor equipment, and rare metal materials is still in the early stages of expansion.
Therefore, it is too early to call AI a foam. It is more like a galloping monster - the direction is correct, but the way must be full of shocks.
Interest rate cut puzzle: The Federal Reserve's "two faced game"
In October, the Federal Reserve staged a "hawkish interest rate cut":
Cut interest rates by 25bp, while also stating that 'interest rate cuts may not continue in December'.
The market expectation instantly dropped from 100% to 66.5%.
The reason is that:
- US government shutdown leads to missing key employment data
- There is a clear divergence within the organization regarding the prospects for economic growth
- The Federal Reserve needs more time to make a unified judgment
However, as long as inflation does not unexpectedly rebound, the door to another interest rate cut in December is still half closed.
The true purpose of the Federal Reserve is--
Preventive interest rate cuts: preemptively resisting potential future recessions and job declines.
This means that the cost of funds is still in a downward trend, but the pace is more cautious.
Rare metal supply chain becomes the 'fourth risk'
The most severe vibration in the world this year comes from tungsten (W):
The demand for aerospace, military, and semiconductor equipment is on the rise
European spot inventory decreases
The United States increases strategic reserves
Global deep processing capacity is severely imbalanced
The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to the long-term interruption of some mining areas
The explosion of AI and the expansion of electricity have further elevated the strategic position of metals such as tungsten, niobium, zirconium, nickel, cobalt, and tantalum.
Rare metals are becoming a new storm eye in the global supply chain.
For the manufacturing and procurement sectors, this part of the risk is more real and direct than macro policies.
The core method of "protecting bags" at the end of the year: the trend is greater than the noise
1. Don't chase short-term fluctuations, focus on long-term trends
AI remains the main channel for the next decade, and the demand for related key materials will not decline.
Especially in the field of deep processing of rare metals with high technological barriers, the certainty is stronger.
2. Finding Certainty in Uncertainty: Gold and Strategic Metals
The game between China and the United States is still ongoing, global debt remains high, and gold and key metals (especially tungsten) remain reliable hard assets.
3. Supply chain diversification, but anchor points need to be stable
Global buyers are increasingly inclined to lock in
A Chinese factory with stable supply, self-developed technical capabilities, and full process quality control.
The storm rises again, sit firmly on the fishing platform
The final battle of 2025 is destined to be tumultuous:
Tariffs sway between paper tigers and real fangs,
AI is torn between fanaticism and skepticism,
The game of the Federal Reserve is still shrouded in mystery,
The risk of the rare metal supply chain has been pushed to the forefront.
But by clearing the fog and seeing the trend clearly, the direction is no longer chaotic.
Fasten your seat belt and prepare your lifebuoy for the next two months, and stabilize your judgment in the changing weather.
The ultimate fruit of victory will belong to those who maintain their composure in the turbulence.
