Metal market volatility: Tariffs and supply dominate the market trend

Copper

On the previous trading day, London copper opened at $9642/ton, peaked at $9664/ton, and closed at $9637/ton; Compared to the previous trading day, it fell by $20.5/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The main copper contract in Shanghai closed at 77950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, or 0.01%.

On a macro level, since August, the United States has unilaterally imposed a 50% tariff on copper exports to the United States, which has reignited market risk sentiment. On the one hand, US copper has been greatly affected and risen, while Shanghai London copper has suffered setbacks and fallen due to the impact of tariffs. Recently, some officials from the Federal Reserve stated that the impact of US tariffs on overall prices is relatively mild, and the employment market trend is positive, with optimistic expectations for a resumption of interest rate cuts in the third quarter.

In addition, the market has high expectations for Waller to take over as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and his data-driven monetary policy philosophy may provide more room for easing the US dollar in the future.

Fundamentally speaking, although the copper concentrate spot TC remains stable at the bottom, there has been no rebound, and the tight supply situation at the mining end has not yet been resolved. Recently, copper inventories at home and abroad have rebounded slightly, but their impact on futures prices is limited. Short term copper prices are still affected by trade policies and recent Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

From a technical perspective, the broad range pattern of Shanghai copper's main contracts remains unchanged. Although there may be a short-term decline, the price structure tends to be strong, with short-term support around 77800 and strong support around 77400.

Aluminium

Last night, the main contract for Shanghai aluminum reached a high of 20450 yuan/ton and closed at 20425 yuan/ton. On the trading day, Lunan Aluminum reached a high of $2585.5 per ton and a low of $2562 per ton.

On a macro level, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed may consider cutting interest rates in July, as market expectations for Waller to take over as the next chairman are high. Therefore, market expectations for the Fed to restart interest rate cuts at this month's meeting have increased, which is positive for commodity prices.

From a fundamental perspective, the short-term low rise of alumina has driven market sentiment, and the willingness to purchase at a low price on the demand side has increased. Coupled with the tightening of supply, it further supports prices, and the cost side is favorable for aluminum prices. The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has fallen again, and although the reduction in inventory is not significant, the poor accumulation of inventory has provided support for the low price of aluminum.

However, in the medium term, the production capacity of alumina is relatively high, the supply expectation is relatively abundant, and aluminum consumption is facing off-season pressure. The probability of accumulating inventory is not low, and aluminum prices still face challenges. Recently, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

From a technical perspective, the short-term trend of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract maintains the previous view, with key pressure around 21150, strong pressure around 21800, overnight support around 20390, and key support around 20240.

Tin

As concerns about supply disruptions in the London market ease, inventory continues to increase, and the impact of US tariffs remains uncertain, dragging down most of the overnight trend of base metals, tin prices continue to decline, and short-term trend pressure remains unabated.

LME three-month tin futures fell again during trading, with the decline widening to around 1.2%, and finally closed at $32830 per ton.

According to the industry, it hit a three week low earlier due to market concerns about oversupply. The International Tin Industry Association announced on Wednesday that tin exports from Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume in the coming months, following a ban that had lasted for nearly two years.

Domestically, Shanghai futures and tin futures fell weakly during the night trading session and fell again, with the current moving average support no longer in place. The final closing price was 262010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1460 yuan or 0.55%.

The price fluctuation range has shifted downwards, and the spot sales quantity is average. We will continue to pay attention to the actual consumption performance and whether macro news continues to affect the price trend.

Nickel

Due to the easing of supply terminal concerns and the impact of increased inventory, most varieties in the London metal market fluctuated and fell overnight, led by copper prices. Currently, the upward trend of nickel prices has once again reversed, showing volatility in performance.

The three-month nickel futures in London closed at $15025 per ton, with a intraday decline of around 0.8%. At present, the focus of the market is on the loose supply side. With the lifting of the blockade by protesters in relevant countries, the restoration of transportation export channels, and the production reaching the upper end of the forecast range, the speculation space for "sudden supply interruption" has been weakened.

In addition, LME registered exchange inventory has increased again, further easing the expectation of spot shortage. Domestically, in the night trading session, Shanghai nickel futures opened low and fell, closing weakly and losing the first line integer mark of 120000 yuan. The final closing price was 119510 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 1090 yuan or 0.90%.

The overall performance of domestic consumption is mediocre, and macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, causing prices to adjust again. However, the overall market transaction heat is still not high, and further growth in consumption in the later stage remains to be observed.